[Oillusion] Are we running out of oil in the next 50 years?
🔎 Oillusion is a series of SKinno News which aims to explore every aspect of oil and to break the illusions about oil.
Oil depletion warnings are not something new to most of us. Despite your age, you may have heard that the world is going to run out of oil in the next 40 to 50 years. But that timeline did not change in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. Now, we are living in year 2024, which is about half a decade from the 1970s, and we know there is enough oil for the next 40-50 years, if not more. So what happened in the past that make those predictions come out, and why the oil depletion has not occurred?
In 1980, Paul R. Ehrlich, a scientist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, and Professor Julian Simon of the Business Administration at the University of Maryland engaged in a “showdown” of the century. Ehrlich argued that overpopulation would deplete natural resources and lead to massive famines. But Professor Simon refuted that opinion, predicting that human creativity and innovation would overcome the limits of physical resources. This became the famous Simon-Ehrlich wager that draw attention of the world, and still is a topic being discussed nowadays.
Five natural resources were included in their bet: copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Ehrlich forecast that these raw materials would face depletion due to increasing demand, which would come along with price increase. On the other hand, Simon argued that the Earth's natural resources are far more abundant than we thought, and that alternatives would be found, so Ehrlich’s prediction would not happen.
This century-defining bet, which involved predicting price trends over a decade, concluded with Ehrlich transferring the promised amount to Simon. The prices of those five natural resources fell by an average of nearly 60% over ten years. The copper reserves around the world, which at the time were estimated to last just over 30 years, have still not been exhausted.
If the commodity had been oil and the metric had been reserves, what would have happened? That would have also likely resulted in a victory for Simon. Oil reserves have proven to be much more abundant than anticipated, and human technology has evolved to access these hidden reserves. Additionally, significant progress has been made in developing alternatives to oil, further supporting Simon's argument that human ingenuity can overcome the physical limits of natural resources.
However, the fact that oil is finite is hard to deny. 40 to 50 years ago, we heard that there were only 40 to 50 years of oil left. Nevertheless, we still perk up our ears at the mention of “how much is left” because we are all standing with one foot in the current oil era, and the other in the direction of energy transition.
The origin of the oil depletion theory dates back 110 years from now. In 1914, the United States Bureau of Mines stated that the U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted within 10 years, but this did not happen. 25 years later, in 1939, the U.S. Department of the Interior again announced that the amount of oil left is only enough for 13 more years. However, oil did not show signs of coming to an end. Despite this, the fear that oil would soon run out was still lingering in people's minds.
The theory of oil depletion once again emerged in 1956 when American geologist Marion King Hubbert started to estimate U.S. oil production between 1965 and 1970. At that time, Hubbert presented a bell-shaped logistic distribution curve, suggesting that global oil production had already reached its peak or would soon do so. Hubbert argued that oil production would steadily increase until it peaked in the early 1970s (Peak Oil), after which it would decline and eventually deplete. As he predicted, the "First Oil Crisis" in the early 1970s seemed to confirm Hubbert's predictions, but oil production has actually increased since then.
The debate surrounding the theory of oil depletion did not end there. In the 1970s, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter stated that at the current rate of oil consumption, “we could use up all the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade," lending weight to the theory of oil depletion. Additionally, the "Club of Rome," a group of European business scholars and scientists, claimed in a report that oil would deplete by the 2000s. According to them, oil should have already been exhausted. However, as everyone knows, it has still yet to disappear.
Of course, the reason for the consistently missed predictions about oil depletion is not because the reserves, which took millions of years to form, suddenly increased. The answer lies in technological advancement.
The development of exploration and drilling technologies has made it possible to extract oil from reserves that were either undiscovered or not economically viable in the past. For example, deep-sea oil fields, which were previously too costly to drill, can now be mined economically. Additionally, advancements in separation and extraction technologies have made it possible to draw oil from unconventional resources, significantly increasing the total oil reserves.
Wait! Conventional Resources vs. Unconventional Resources?
Conventional resources refer to oil and gas resources produced using traditional methods from the past. On the other hand, unconventional resources encompass natural resources outside of conventional resources, which couldn't be extracted using traditional fossil fuel extraction methods but can now be mined thanks to the development of new technologies such as horizontal drilling(*) and hydraulic fracturing(**).
(*) Horizontal drilling: a method that deviates from the traditional method of drilling vertically into the ground, drilling vertically only to a certain depth before then continuing at a specific angle diagonally
(**) Hydraulic fracturing: a method that involves injecting a mixture of large amounts of water, sand, and a small amount of chemicals at high pressure into shale layers to break apart underground rocks
Notable examples of unconventional resources include Shale Oil and Oil Sands. Shale Oil is oil extracted from a sedimentary rock called shale, which exists about 3,000 meters underground. It began to be commercially mined in 2008 when George Mitchell from U.S. commercialized hydraulic fracturing technology.
Hydraulic fracturing is a method that involves injecting a mixture of large amounts of water, sand, and a small amount of chemicals at high pressure into shale layers to fracture the rock and extract oil and gas. Previously, extracting oil from deep and hard shale layers was difficult. However, with the advent of innovative mining technologies like hydraulic fracturing, the U.S. surpassed Saudi Arabia in 2017 to become the world's largest oil producer. This led to the famous "Shale Revolution," which enabled U.S. energy independence.
Oil sands, another unconventional resource, differ from conventionally stored liquid crude oil as they consist of oil mixed with clay or sand. Extracting oil from oil sands requires technology to separate and refine the crude oil from the soil. Additionally, the production process is somewhat complex because the high viscosity of oil extracted from oil sands must be reduced to allow it to pass through pipelines. For these reasons, oil sands, which were neglected, saw an increase in production following the introduction of large-scale separation technologies in the 2010s.
According to a report released by the global major company British Petroleum (BP), proved oil reserves have shown significant growth, rising from 770.4 billion barrels in 1985 to 1.6369 trillion barrels by 2010. And data has proved that the increasing trend of oil reserves are still going on.
Additionally, the development of alternative energy technologies to substitute oil has also contributed to delaying oil depletion. For example, besides vehicles with internal combustion engines using gasoline, diesel, and LPG, the number of vehicles powered by new energy sources, such as electric vehicles, as a means of transportation is growing.
Oil is a limited resource, so it could eventually be depleted if continuously used. However, with technological advances and the development of alternative energies, it is complex to guess when oil will run out.
Long ago, the Stone Age did not end because we ran out of stones but because they were no longer needed. Humanity began using more efficient bronze as a new resource instead of stone. Additionally, the Iron Age began because humans could use iron, a new metal.
Living in the oil era, we are also preparing for the post-oil era. Before oil is depleted, wouldn't humanity find some other alternative resources?
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[Battery Explorer] ① The history of battery – From dream to reality
In the early 1900s, French artists depicted visions of the year 2000 in a series of illustrations titled 「En L'An 2000」, imagining future innovations such as 「Electric Train」 and 「Auto Rollers」. Similarly, in 1965, about 9,000 kilometers away from France, a science fiction cartoonist named Lee Jung-moon introduced electric cars in his comic "Life in the Year 2000," which was published in a science magazine in South Korea. These artists and visionaries from the East and West both dreamt of future transportation using electricity, illustrating how universal the fascination with electric-powered mobility was across cultures.
| Once a Dream, Now a Reality
Nowadays, the various forms of electric transportation once envisioned by past artists have become an integral part of our daily lives. The key to realizing these dreams has been the technological development of "cell", also known as a “battery”. From the view of a Battery Explorer, we aim to inspect not only the technological advancements in the revolution of batteries but also the impacts of these developments on our lives.
| Types and Characteristics of Batteries
We are already familiar with several types of battery, as our daily life is now surrounded by many electrical devices. From digital clocks, laptops, cell phones to cars, they all run with batterries but those cells are not quite the same. Based on their fundamental operating principles, they are broadly classified into chemical, biological, and physical batteries.
A chemical battery converts the energy generated from a chemical reaction into electrical energy. The materials involved in a chemical reaction are all present within the battery itself and can be further classified into primary battery, secondary battery, and fuel cell.
Primary batteries are disposable, and once they are discharged, they are discarded. Alkaline manganese batteries, commonly used in remote controls and watches, are typical examples. Secondary batteries can be recharged and reused after discharge. Thus, they are also referred to as rechargeable batteries. Lithium-ion batteries represent this type and are widely used as the energy source for electric vehicles and other electrical devices such as cell phones, laptops, etc. Fuel cells generate electrical energy by electrochemically reacting a fuel with an oxidizer. Unlike typical chemical batteries, fuel cells require a continuous supply of fuel and oxygen to sustain the chemical reaction that provides electricity.
A bio-battery is a type of cell that generates power through biochemical reactions involving enzymes, microorganisms, etc. A physical battery converts forms of energy such as light, heat, or nuclear power into electricity. Examples of physical batteries include solar cells, which directly generate electricity from sunlight, and atomic cells, which convert radiation energy into electrical energy.
| The Evolution and History of Batteries: Past, Present, and Future
⚡ The origin of the word “volt” (V)
One essential thing we check before traveling abroad is the "voltage" of the destination country, measured in "volts (V)." But do you know where this term comes from?
In 1800, the Italian physicist Alessandro Volta (1745-1827) invented the Voltaic Pile, the world's first modern battery and a fundamental chemical battery. He created electricity by stacking alternating discs of copper and zinc interspersed with pieces of cloth soaked in a dilute sulfuric acid solution. This setup produced a steady current through the electrochemical reaction between the two different metals and the electrolyte solution. This groundbreaking invention allowed humanity to move beyond static electricity to harness flowing electric current. In recognition of his contributions, the unit of electric potential was named the "volt" after him.
🔍 What about amperes (A) and watts (W)?
Ampere (A) is the base unit of electric current in the International System of Units (SI). It is named after the French physicist André-Marie Ampère (1775-1836), who formulated Ampère's circuital law concerning magnetic fields.
Watt (W) is the basic unit of power, named after James Watt, the 18th-century inventor of the world's first steam engine. It represents the rate of producing or consuming energy per second. Watt-hour (Wh) denotes the amount of "energy" produced or consumed over an hour.
⚡ Electromagnetic Induction Experiment: Discovering Current
British physicist and chemist Michael Faraday (1791-1867) wondered if moving a magnet could generate an electric field. In 1831, he placed two coils side by side and conducted an experiment by running current through one coil, through which he discovered the phenomenon of electromagnetic induction.
Faraday's electromagnetic rotating device fills mercury in both cups, allowing current to flow. Underneath the left cup is a magnet with a conductor fixed onto it, while the right cup had the conductor suspended above and the magnet secured in the cup. Connecting the mercury in both cups to the poles of a battery caused the magnet on the left and the conductor on the right to rotate. This electromagnetic induction experiment demonstrated that magnetic fields could generate currents, playing a crucial role in the development of our electric civilization.
⚡ Daniell Cell, Surpassing the Voltaic Cell
In 1836, British chemist John Frederic Daniell invented a cell, which was later named “Daniell cell” after him, to solve the problem of hydrogen gas accumulation and voltage drop due to polarization in the Voltaic cell. The Daniell cell consisted of a zinc electrode in a zinc sulfate solution and a copper electrode in a copper sulfate solution, connected by a salt bridge*. This design provided a stable supply of current for the communication devices of the time.
(*) Salt Bridge: A pathway that allows free movement of cations and anions. The salt bridge contains potassium chloride (KCl) or potassium nitrate (KNO₃). When there is an increase in cations at the anode (negative electrode), the nitrate ions from the salt bridge move to balance the ions. When there is an increase in anions at the cathode (positive electrode), the potassium ions from the salt bridge move to maintain ion equilibrium.
Thus, the secondary batteries used today were reached through numerous processes. It was the result of continuous improvement and innovation based on past technologies.
The world's first secondary battery emerged 59 years after the invention of the Voltaic cell. In 1859, French physicist Gaston Planté (1834-1889) invented the first secondary battery, the lead-acid battery. Subsequent developments in secondary batteries led to two main types: nickel-based and lithium-based, with lithium-based batteries being predominant today. Lithium-ion batteries are favored over other secondary batteries due to being lighter and smaller yet have a higher energy density.
This has been the history and development process of batteries. In the following story, we will explore more about the revolutionary inventions that brought about the mobile revolution and the era of electric vehicles: the secondary batteries. In the next part, we will delve deeper into batteries, from the four key components that make up a secondary battery to its classification and applications.
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[Oillusion] A refinery’s oil pipeline that is equivalent to a round trip between the Earth and the Moon
🔎 Oillusion is a series of SKinno News which aims to explore every aspect of oil and to break the illusions about oil.
Have you ever wondered how crude oil is delivered to many parts of a country in enormous quantities, after being shipped by oil tankers across the oceans? Some might think that it is transported like ordinary cargo, loaded onto large trucks or trains. However, in fact, there is a special method of transportation solely dedicated to carrying oil. Let’s find out what it is.
On May 28, 1879, a revolution in oil transportation began. Crude oil, which had been carried only in barrels (i.e., a container made by weaving together pieces of wood), started being transported through oil pipelines. An impressive amount of approximately 2 million liters of oil, which would have required around 12,500 barrels, flowed through these pipelines at once. Thus, the history of oil pipelines, traversing steep mountains and vast lands, began.
During the 4 years of World War I from 1914 to 1918, as fuels for automobiles and aircraft were essential, crude oil became more significant than ever. Later, after the end of World War II, which was also called "the first oil war," pipelines started becoming the primary means of oil transportation. At that time, the U.S. transported war supplies and oil using cargo ships and tankers. However, many ships and goods sank to the bottom of the ocean from torpedo attacks by German submarines that were patrolling the Atlantic coast. The giant oil tankers were especially more visible and slower than other cargo ships, making them the main targets for German submarines. As a result, not only was the supply of oil needed by the Allies disrupted, but the supply of oil intended for use in the eastern regions also was jeopardized.
The U.S. government came up with an idea to resolve the oil transportation issues. It was to build a long-distance "oil pipeline" that could carry crude oil produced in Texas to the refining facilities concentrated in the East. On August 14, 1943, just a year after the construction began, the U.S. completed an oil pipeline from Texas to New Jersey that stretched 2,018 kilometers and crossed over 8 states and 20 rivers. The pipeline had a diameter of 24 inches, which was five times larger than what had been used previously, hence the name Big Inch. This Big Inch pipeline could transport 300,000 barrels of crude oil per day, enabling efficient and safe oil transport during the war.
A year later, the Little Big Inch was completed. It was a pipeline with a reduced diameter of 20 inches extending over a total of 2,373 kilometers, surpassing the length of the Big Inch and further increasing efficiency. The Big Inch and Little Big Inch pipelines played a critical role in transporting more than half of the oil within the U.S., ultimately contributing to the victory of the Allies in World War II.
According to the Deahan Oil Pipeline Corporation (hereinafter, DOPCO), pipeline is a safer and more economical means of transportation compared to maritime, railway, and ship. They help alleviate traffic congestion and reduce logistics costs and the storage effects of petroleum products. The beginning of South Korea's oil pipeline history dates back to 1969 when the U.S. 8th Army constructed the Trans-Korea Pipeline (TKP, 452 km) connecting Pohang to Uijeongbu. Following this, in 1971, SK Innovation's predecessor, Yukong, constructed an oil pipeline (YKP, 101 km) for transporting its products between Ulsan and Daegu, which was also connected to the Trans-Korea Oil Pipeline.
Currently, South Korea has an extensive network of oil pipelines managed by DOPCO, divided into six major lines, which the government and oil refineries, including SK Energy, jointly established. Along these pipeline routes are various SK Energy logistics centers and DOPCO storage depots. The pipelines connect the SK Innovation Ulsan Complex (Ulsan CLX) and SK Incheon Petrochem to inland urban areas such as Seoul, Daejeon, Daegu, Gwangju, and Jeonju.
Oil pipelines are more stable and less susceptible to external factors such as weather and traffic conditions compared to other transportation methods, making them responsible for the largest portion of primary light oil transportation within South Korea. In fact, about 30% of the light oil products like gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and aviation fuel shipped from Ulsan CLX are transported via pipelines. The total length of the pipelines within the Ulsan CLX plant is 600,000 km, which exceeds the distance between the Earth and the Moon (approximately 385,000 km).
In addition to transporting, the oil pipeline network handles all processes, from refining crude oil to providing petroleum products. The journey of the pipeline from the oil field to the refinery and from there to the final consumption points is divided into three main stages.
1. Gathering System
The term refers to the pipeline and accompanying facilities that transport crude oil from an oil well located within an oil field to a designated location. This system is interconnected with various branch lines to move the crude oil, with the diameter of the pipes typically ranging from 10 to 30 cm. Generally, these pipelines serve to collect crude oil produced in oil fields, resulting in shorter pipelines compared to other systems.
2. Trunk Line System
This system transports crude oil from oil fields to receiving points such as refineries and requires extensive construction as it is the longest of the three-stage system. Consequently, construction methods, pipe material improvements, and design techniques have continuously evolved to accommodate the extensive lengths required for these pipelines.
3. Distribution System
This system transports petroleum products from product supply locations such as refineries and ports to the final consumption sites. It extends into regional interiors and consists of smaller branch lines. The distribution system transports products like gasoline, kerosene, and aviation fuel. As it transports various petroleum products, it is crucial to accurately classify the quality and grade of such products and detect minute changes in the oil ratio. Consequently, the development of oil ratio detection devices and oil flow prevention mechanisms in the system has advanced.
Petroleum, originating from deep beneath the earth, is utilized in various aspects of our daily lives. The reason petroleum can be a part of our daily lives is primarily thanks to the oil pipelines that transport oil across different regions of the world.
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Trends & Reports
[Oillusion] Are we running out of oil in the next 50 years?
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Trends & Reports
[Battery Explorer] ① The history of battery – From dream to reality
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Trends & Reports
[Oillusion] A refinery’s oil pipeline that is equivalent to a round trip between the Earth and the Moon
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Turnout Gear, the special suit that protects firefighters from flames
"When I am called to duty, God Wherever flames may rage, Give me the strength to save some life Whatever be its age." - From "Fireman's Prayer" by A.W. Smokey Linn On December 2nd, 1998, a major wildfire occurred in the Linton area, Victoria, Australia. As evening fell, there was a sudden change in the wind direction and the flame became more violent, instantly took the precious lives of five firefighters. This tragic incident led to the proposal for an International Firefighters’ Day, which is observed on May 4th. The date chosen to honor the efforts and dedication of firefighters, was linked to the feast day of Saint Florian, the patron saint of firefighters in Europe. Saint Florian, a Roman military officer around 300 AD, is known as the first person in history to officially establish a fire brigade. No words can ever be enough to express our gratitude for the hard work of firefighters. It is the wish of everyone that nothing bad would happen to the firefighters, but prayers alone cannot protect them. The most significant thing that keeps firefighters safe is their armor – the turnout gear. For our superheroes, these turnout gears mean much more than the “suits” of the superheroes in movies. The secret to the turnout gear's ability to protect firefighters from flames lies in a material called Aramid Fiber. Aramid is short for "Aromatic Polyamide," and it is not only resistant to heat but also lightweight, so it is also dubbed as "super fiber." The turnout gear consists of multiple layers, including an outer cover specially coated with aluminum on the surface of the aramid fibers, a middle layer of heat-resistant fibers, and a lining, all designed to reflect and block heat to protect the person wearing the gear. Aramid weighs around only 20% of steel but is more than five times stronger. It is a high-strength material capable of lifting a 2-ton truck with a 5mm-thick thread made from aramid fibers. Moreover, it has excellent heat resistance, as it does not burn or melt even at high temperatures between 400-500°C. Based on these excellent functional properties, aramid is used in various applications such as turnout gear, bulletproof vests, automotive materials, etc. Aramid, regarded as a "magical thread" or "miraculous fiber," is divided into Para Aramid and Meta Aramid based on its chemical structure. Para Aramid has high tensile strength and therefore is used in bulletproof materials that can block bullets, as well as in automotive brake pads. Meta Aramid, noted for its exceptional heat resistance, is used in special garments like turnout gears and spacesuits that need to withstand high temperatures. The symbol for International Firefighters' Day is a red and blue ribbon. Red represents fire, and blue represents water, which indicate the main elements firefighters work with. If you see this ribbon, let’s spend at least a few moments to honor the firefighters, who always follow the "First In, Last Out" principle despite being at risk on duty. Another important thing to remember: the perfect material beyond aramid that completely protects firefighters from flames has not yet been discovered. We hope that day will come soon with the relentless efforts being made along with the development of petrochemical technologies. ■ Related articles - Waterproof banknotes and books, are you using them?
2024. 05. 03
Turnout Gear, the special suit that protects firefighters from flames
"When I am called to duty, God Wherever flames may rage, Give me the strength to save some life Whatever be its age." - From "Fireman's Prayer" by A.W. Smokey Linn On December 2nd, 1998, a major wildfire occurred in the Linton area, Victoria, Australia. As evening fell, there was a sudden change in the wind direction and the flame became more violent, instantly took the precious lives of five firefighters. This tragic incident led to the proposal for an International Firefighters’ Day, which is observed on May 4th. The date chosen to honor the efforts and dedication of firefighters, was linked to the feast day of Saint Florian, the patron saint of firefighters in Europe. Saint Florian, a Roman military officer around 300 AD, is known as the first person in history to officially establish a fire brigade. No words can ever be enough to express our gratitude for the hard work of firefighters. It is the wish of everyone that nothing bad would happen to the firefighters, but prayers alone cannot protect them. The most significant thing that keeps firefighters safe is their armor – the turnout gear. For our superheroes, these turnout gears mean much more than the “suits” of the superheroes in movies. The secret to the turnout gear's ability to protect firefighters from flames lies in a material called Aramid Fiber. Aramid is short for "Aromatic Polyamide," and it is not only resistant to heat but also lightweight, so it is also dubbed as "super fiber." The turnout gear consists of multiple layers, including an outer cover specially coated with aluminum on the surface of the aramid fibers, a middle layer of heat-resistant fibers, and a lining, all designed to reflect and block heat to protect the person wearing the gear. Aramid weighs around only 20% of steel but is more than five times stronger. It is a high-strength material capable of lifting a 2-ton truck with a 5mm-thick thread made from aramid fibers. Moreover, it has excellent heat resistance, as it does not burn or melt even at high temperatures between 400-500°C. Based on these excellent functional properties, aramid is used in various applications such as turnout gear, bulletproof vests, automotive materials, etc. Aramid, regarded as a "magical thread" or "miraculous fiber," is divided into Para Aramid and Meta Aramid based on its chemical structure. Para Aramid has high tensile strength and therefore is used in bulletproof materials that can block bullets, as well as in automotive brake pads. Meta Aramid, noted for its exceptional heat resistance, is used in special garments like turnout gears and spacesuits that need to withstand high temperatures. The symbol for International Firefighters' Day is a red and blue ribbon. Red represents fire, and blue represents water, which indicate the main elements firefighters work with. If you see this ribbon, let’s spend at least a few moments to honor the firefighters, who always follow the "First In, Last Out" principle despite being at risk on duty. Another important thing to remember: the perfect material beyond aramid that completely protects firefighters from flames has not yet been discovered. We hope that day will come soon with the relentless efforts being made along with the development of petrochemical technologies. ■ Related articles - Waterproof banknotes and books, are you using them?
2024. 05. 03
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